Pseudocertainty Effect
A cognitive bias where people perceive an outcome as certain while it is actually uncertain, based on how information is presented.
18 topics found for
“decision-making under uncertainty”
Monte Carlo Simulation
A statistical technique that uses random sampling and statistical modeling to estimate mathematical functions and simulate systems.
Hindsight Bias
A cognitive bias where people perceive past events as having been more predictable than they actually were.
Moral Luck
A phenomenon where the success or failure of a design or business outcome is influenced by external factors beyond the control of the decision-makers, akin to serendipity.
Representativeness
Representativeness is a heuristic in decision-making where individuals judge the probability of an event based on how much it resembles a typical case.
Expectancy Theory
A motivational theory suggesting that individuals are motivated to act based on the expected outcomes of their actions and the attractiveness of those outcomes.
Regulatory Focus Theory
A theory that describes how individuals pursue goals using either a promotion focus (seeking gains) or a prevention focus (avoiding losses).
VUCA
Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity (VUCA) is an acronym for describing the challenging conditions of the modern world.
Spike
A short, time-boxed period used in Agile development to research a concept or explore a new technology.